Nigeria: Mali attacks raise alarm in West Africa as experts warn Nigeria is at risk

By Zuleihat Owuiye, Mamos Nigeria

Last weekend’s coordinated terrorist assault in Mali, which killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara, has rattled security experts across West Africa. Analysts warn that Nigeria’s North West and North Central regions could be next unless regional intelligence sharing and joint operations improve quickly.

Jihadist militants, in a rare alliance with Tuareg separatists, launched attacks across multiple regions of Mali. The offensive has renewed fears of Sahelian jihadism spreading south into Nigeria. It follows a surge in violence across the Sahel after military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the withdrawal of French forces, and the exit of UN peacekeepers.

Nigeria’s North West and North Central already face banditry and insurgent-linked violence, including a recent raid on an orphanage in Kogi State. While experts say Nigeria has security structures in place, they agree that Mali’s experience shows jihadist groups are scaling up coordination and ambition. Without regional unity and actionable intelligence, they warn, Nigeria could be next.

Prof. Femi Otubanjo, Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, said Nigeria “obviously has reason to worry.” He cited the domino theory: “If the domino falls, the other dominoes are likely to fall. West Africa is the epicentre of extreme jihadism in the world now. If any jihadist group has the upper hand in any country, it’s going to be an encouragement to the others.”

Otubanjo said Nigeria’s insurgency shows no sign of abating despite years of military operations. “The fact that he completed the hour does not mean that he will pass. The result is what will determine the path. We are not seeing any tangible results from our military, our security strategy.”

He pointed to external backing: “When terrorist organisations begin to come together, it means that there are forces outside that are bringing them together. They are being supplied, they are being encouraged.”

On the Multinational Joint Task Force, he added: “They ought to be equipped. We are spending a very huge proportion of our budget on security affairs, but we have not seen the results.”

Insecurity, he warned, is displacing people and crippling commerce. “Any fever in any part of West Africa will have serious consequences for the other part. There’s no country in West Africa that can take the scourge of refugees that will come from Nigeria if we get into any violent altercation with ourselves.”

Otubanjo called for ECOWAS to lead counterinsurgency efforts, proactive regional coordination, public dialogue on security, and better intelligence. “We need to be proactive… If we are not able to deal with it ourselves, seek international assistance. Until the problem is solved, you must continue to find solutions.”

Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, Director General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, said coordinated attacks can happen anywhere if intelligence fails. He referenced the attempted attack on former US President Donald Trump and the Kuje prison break near Abuja.

“The state must create a deep sense of fear that if you dare, you won’t succeed and you’ll pay dearly for it,” he said. Ochogwu argued that Nigeria’s security architecture is “holding forte.” “If they are not in place, we would have been run over.”

Still, he urged citizen cooperation: “When you as a citizen see something, you alert them, you’ve played your role… Once the information comes, there should be an action. Oftentimes, that is where the problem lies.”

On counterterrorism, he said Nigeria needs partners for satellite imaging and precision equipment. “We have the men on the ground. We have the air component. This is a time for counterterrorism partners to support the Nigerian counterterrorism efforts.”

Prof. Babatunde Ayeleru, of the Department of European Studies, University of Ibadan, said it would be unwise to think such attacks can’t happen in Nigeria. “Nigeria needs to learn from the Malian experience and double her efforts at the war against insurgency and insecurity. Nigeria is currently vulnerable given the spate of violent attacks going on in a number of Northern states.”

He called for strengthening the MNJTF and warned that ECOWAS disunity is a threat. “The crack experienced as a result of the exit from ECOWAS by the Sahel countries of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso is already a source of concern for the maintenance of peace in the subregion.”

Ayeleru said the capture of Malian cities could “weaken the security architecture of Nigeria as a neighboring country.” He predicted more illicit trade, weapons smuggling, and disruption of food supplies, and urged Abuja to “suspend the ongoing efforts at reopening its borders with those troubling countries.”

Foreign policy expert and international lawyer Femi Ojumu said Mali’s experience mirrors the damage by Boko Haram, ISWAP, and Lakurawa in Northern Nigeria. Despite “gallant troops,” he said Nigeria faces an “operational gap between strategic interagency coordination, actionable intelligence, and effective kinetic operations.”

While foreign partnerships help, Nigeria needs “organic development of its own security arrangements which prioritise its own national interests.” He argued that the MNJTF and ECOWAS security arrangements “have proven incapable of sustainably quelling terrorism.” 

“That challenge speaks to significant internal divisions within ECOWAS itself, not least with the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Again, that lacuna imperils the effectiveness for counter terrorist activities in the Sahel,” Ojumu said.

Dr. Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi, of Lagos State University’s Political Science Department, said Mali-style killings aren’t new to Nigeria. “The question isn’t about if similar attacks can happen in Nigeria; they’re already here.”

“The last couple of months have been deadly. From Adamawa, Borno, to Jos, the lives of Nigerians have been cut short. Just like Gen. Camara, Brig. Gen. Oseni Braimah was killed by Boko Haram a few weeks ago. Earlier, Brig. Gen. Musa Uba was killed by ISWAP late last year. In many ways, the same daring attacks have happened in Nigeria this year. Certainly, the Northwest and North Central are in the eyes of the storm,” Oshodi said.

He noted that the Alliance of Sahelian States has weakened the collective front that once existed. “Nigeria can’t lead Africa on security while its own territory is under attack.