Nigeria: Atiku warns opposition against southern zoning for 2027

By Zuleihat Owuiye, Mamos Nigeria

 Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s camp has urged Nigeria’s opposition parties to abandon calls for zoning the 2027 presidential ticket to the South, arguing that the move would weaken their chances of unseating President Bola Tinubu and reduce the contest to “self-defeating politics.”

In a statement issued Tuesday, 12 May 2026, by his media aide Olusola Sanni, Atiku’s team said insisting on a southern opposition candidate against a sitting southern president ignores Nigeria’s electoral history and political realities. The statement was a direct response to growing voices within opposition circles advocating for the 2027 ticket to be zoned to the South, particularly to address calls for equity and a Southeast presidency.

The Atiku camp argued that Nigerian political history shows no instance of an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical zone as an incumbent president successfully defeating that president at the polls. 

“The first and most obvious question is this: how does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president?” the statement asked. “No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical bloc. To insist otherwise is to enter the contest already defeated.”

While acknowledging that the ruling All Progressives Congress could reasonably retain a southern presidential ticket around President Tinubu, Atiku’s team said the opposition should not adopt the same logic without a clear assessment of what it takes to win.

“Defeating an incumbent president requires realism, not romanticism; strategy, not sentiment; honesty, not selective memory,” the statement said. “The opposition must decide whether its goal is to make an emotional statement or to actually win power.”

Addressing the equity argument advanced by proponents of southern zoning, the Atiku camp said the data does not support claims of marginalization against the South. 

By 2027, the statement noted, the South would have held the presidency for approximately 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to roughly 10 years for the North. Granting the South another four-year term, it argued, would deepen rather than correct the imbalance.

“It therefore becomes difficult to understand the justice in an argument that seeks to deepen an already existing imbalance under the guise of equity,” the camp said.

The statement also accused some political actors of inconsistency on zoning. It pointed to 2011, when many of those now advocating for strict rotation supported Goodluck Jonathan’s southern presidency after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, despite expectations under the informal North-South rotation arrangement that the ticket should return to the North.

“It is intellectually dishonest for those who enthusiastically supported a Southern presidency under Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, despite the North’s legitimate expectation under the informal zoning arrangement, to now suddenly posture as custodians of rotational justice,” the statement said. “Principles do not become sacred only when they align with personal ambition.”

The Atiku camp was careful to affirm the Southeast’s right to produce a president, calling the aspiration legitimate. However, it drew a line between a credible, sustainable pathway to the presidency and what it described as “transactional political bargaining” or “symbolic tokenism” designed to serve one individual’s ambition.

“The Southeast deserves a sustainable and credible pathway to national leadership — not symbolic tokenism or bespoke arrangements tailored to satisfy one individual’s ambition,” the statement said.

It urged opposition leaders to focus on building a broad, national coalition capable of defeating the incumbent, warning that sentiment-driven zoning debates risk splitting the opposition and inadvertently strengthening Tinubu’s re-election prospects.

“The opposition’s energy should go into presenting a credible alternative on issues that matter to Nigerians: security, economy, jobs, and national unity,” the statement said. “Debates over zoning that ignore electoral math will only weaken the challenge.”

Atiku Abubakar, a northern Muslim from Adamawa State, has contested the presidency multiple times and remains one of the most visible opposition figures ahead of the 2027 election cycle. He was the Peoples Democratic Party candidate in 2019 and 2023, losing to Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu respectively.

The debate over zoning has resurfaced as political actors begin positioning for 2027. President Tinubu, from the South-West, is widely expected to seek a second term under the APC. Within the opposition, figures from the South-South and South-East have argued that it is the South’s turn to complete a second term, while northern politicians and groups have pushed back, citing the need for balance and electability.

The APC’s decision to retain a southern ticket in 2023 was largely driven by the need to balance power after eight years of northern presidency under Buhari. However, Atiku’s camp argues that opposition strategy should not mirror the ruling party’s internal calculations, especially when the goal is to remove an incumbent.

The statement concluded with a call for opposition parties to prioritize coalition building over regional bargaining. It warned that fragmentation along zonal lines would play into the hands of the ruling party.

“If the opposition is serious about 2027, it must present a united front with a candidate who can appeal across regions and demographics,” it said. “That requires a clear strategy, credible policy platform, and discipline to avoid distractions.”

Atiku’s position sets up an early clash within opposition ranks over how to approach 2027. While some leaders argue that zoning to the South is a matter of fairness and would energize southern voters, others agree with Atiku that electability and national reach should take precedence.

Political analysts note that the zoning debate often resurfaces ahead of elections but has rarely determined outcomes on its own. In 2015, Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, by building a coalition that crossed regional lines. In 2023, Tinubu won despite not having the backing of all southern states, benefiting from APC’s northern support and opposition disunity.

The statement’s distinction between legitimate Southeast aspirations and tokenism is likely to resonate in the region, where calls for a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction have grown louder in recent years. Groups across the Southeast have argued that the zone has been excluded from the presidency since 1999 despite its contributions to national politics and the economy.

Atiku’s camp did not name any individual but appeared to push back against arrangements perceived as designed to favor a single candidate under the guise of regional equity. It suggested that a sustainable path for the Southeast would involve broader coalition building and policy-based politics rather than ad hoc zoning deals.

With more than a year until party primaries, the debate over zoning is expected to intensify. The PDP, Labour Party, and other opposition platforms have not yet taken formal positions on zoning for 2027. Internal party consultations are ongoing, and regional caucuses are expected to play a major role in shaping decisions.

For now, Atiku’s camp has drawn a clear line: the opposition’s priority should be winning, not making symbolic gestures. Whether that argument gains traction will depend on how other opposition leaders frame the contest and whether a candidate emerges who can unify the anti-APC vote across Nigeria’s diverse regions.

The statement ends with a reminder that elections are won on votes, not sentiments. “If the opposition wants power, it must earn it through strategy, outreach, and a message that speaks to all Nigerians.