What this poll means for the opposition?
By Ndey Jobarteh
The new findings from CepRass, are not just public opinion numbers. They describe the political terrain going into the next election.
Let’s interpret them strategically, not emotionally.
1. The incumbent is politically weak
Core legitimacy indicators:
56% disapprove
Only 32% approve
Only 37% trust the president
60% say the economy is badly managed
In political science terms:
Any government with approval below 40% is vulnerable.
Disapproval above 50% means majority rejection.
Trust below 40% means weak legitimacy.
This is not a comfortable government.
It is a defensive Government..
Meaning for opposition:
The election is competitive and winnable.
2. The economy is the biggest weapon
66% dissatisfied with job creation.
60% say economic management is bad.
Cost of living = top concern.
This tells you clearly:
Voters care more about jobs and prices.
Meaning for opposition:
Campaign messages must focus on:
Employment.
Small business.
Cost of living.
Youth opportunities.
Not personality attacks.
Elections are won on pocket issues, not anger.
3. Corruption & accountability are weak points!
66% say corruption fight is poor.
Institutional reforms are seen as slow.
Meaning:
People feel the Government protects insiders, not citizens.
4. Election integrity is a structural risk!
52% worried about election integrity.
This is huge.
When more than half fear the process:
turnout drops.
apathy increases.
disputes grow.
Meaning for opposition:
You cannot only campaign.
You must:
protect the vote.
train polling agents.
monitor results.
educate voters.
ensure turnout.
Because:
Unprotected votes = lost votes
5. Third term rejection shows an appetite for change!
58% say a third term weakens democracy.
84% support presidential term limits.
This is a very strong democratic signal.
Meaning:
The country prefers limits on power, not extended rule.
Meaning for opposition:
Frame yourselves as:
Defenders of democracy
Protectors of term limits
Guardians of institutions
Not just “anti government.”
6. The most important political truth!
Here is the key takeaway:
The people are already dissatisfied.
The opposition’s job is NOT to create anger.
The anger already exists.
The real tasks are:
Unity
Collaboration
Organization
Protecting votes
Turning dissatisfaction into turnout
Because:
Disapproval alone does not Remove a government. Only organized votes do
Bottom Line conclusion!!
These numbers show:
The Government is weak.
The Public is frustrated.
Trust is low.
Change is possible
Finally!!
The numbers show Gambians are ready for change, but change will only come if the opposition unites, collaborate, organises, and protects every vote.
Source: CepRass Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies
