SURVEY SAYS MAJORITY OF GAMBIANS DON’T WANT THIRD TERM FOR BARROW But projects him likely winner in 2026

A latest survey conducted by Gambia Participates (GP) in collaboration with the Centre for Policy Research and Strategic Studies (CepRass), has indicated that 55 percent of Gambians do not believe President Adama Barrow should contest for a third term.
President Barrow’s plan to seek a third presidential term has already sparked a wave of controversy.
According to the survey published yesterday, the overall results from the opinion poll indicate that a majority of respondents (55%) do not believe he should contest in the 2026 Presidential Election.
In contrast, 35% of respondents expressed support for his candidacy, while 10% were undecided, indicating a notable minority still open to the idea of a third term.

Breakdown
In Basse, a clear majority (64%) believe Barrow should run again, marking it as the strongest base of support for him, while Banjul too leans toward supporting him, with 44% in favour and 37% opposed. In Kerewan (45% opposed Barrow’s third term; Kanifing 42% opposed it, in Brikama 37% opposed Barrow’s third term.
In Kuntaur (42% opposed, 39% in favour) and Mansakonko (41% opposed, 40% in favour), a near-even splits, suggesting that in voter opinion there is more competitiveness and possibly more susceptible to campaign influence.
Meanwhile, Janjanbureh shows a more balanced view as well, with 37% opposed and 31% in favour, while Brikama displays relatively moderate opposition (36% in favour, 33% opposed) but also a higher “Not Sure” rate, indicating potential for opinion shifts.
According to the survey, looking at voter intentions for President Barrow in the 2026 election by age category, opposition to his candidacy is consistently higher than support across all age groups.

Age category
Among the 25–34 age group, rejection is strongest, with 19% saying they would not vote for him, compared to just 9% supporting him. A similar pattern is seen in the 35–44 group, where 14% would not vote for him and only 10% would. In the 18–24 category, younger voters are less hostile but still lean negative, with 7% against and 3% in support while in older groups, opposition softens slightly but remains higher than support. In the 45–54 category, 8% said no while 7% said yes, and among the 55+ group, 7% would not vote for him while 5% would.
Overall, the results suggest that Barrow faces more resistance than support across all age categories, with the greatest opposition concentrated among voters aged 25–44. His strongest relative backing appears among older Gambians, but even there, opposition outweighs support.

Gender
The survey further revealed that when analysing voting intentions for President Barrow in the 2026 election by gender, the data shows a clear gender divide in levels of support and rejection.
According to the survey, among women, 21% say they would not vote for Barrow, while 12% would, and 5% remain undecided and among men, opposition is much stronger, with 34% rejecting him, compared to 23% who support him, and 5% undecided.
In total, 1,556 respondents were targeted nationwide. The sample size was calculated to provide sufficient statistical power for national estimates while enabling disaggregated analysis by region and demographic subgroup.
The respondents were asked about their views on the incumbent president’s eligibility and performance; perceptions of opposition leaders and potential presidential candidates; Leadership succession prospects within major parties; and Coalition dynamics and electoral outlook for 2026.

Still, Barrow Likely to win
The opinion poll results however indicated that Barrow is currently perceived as the individual with the strongest chance of winning the 2026 Presidential election, securing 31% of overall responses. He is followed by Talib Bensouda with 18% and Ousainou Darboe with 12%. Other potential candidates, such as Essa Mbaye Faal and Mama Kandeh, each received 3%, while another 3% selected “others.” A notable 29% of respondents remain undecided, signalling considerable uncertainty and fluidity in the political landscape.

Source: The Standard