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How do you think Trump’s presidency will end?

  • March 16, 2025
  • 2 min read
How do you think Trump’s presidency will end?

By Tomaz Vargozon

Let me use one of Ramsays’ quotes on this one.

If you think this has a happy ending, you haven’t been paying attention

There is no good way for the end of the Trump ‘47. The baseline scenario is USA is turned into a hybrid regime, akin to pre-2014 (-ish) Russia: the president and the parliament (Congress and Senate) is fixed and will be won by the Republicans with a majority control every single time, forever. This will be achieved by a combination of cheating, lawsuits and directing the DOJ to start investigations and prosecutions against anyone who is a serious threat to their power. Courts will work to further the power of the Republican party. There will be some genuine political opposition, mainly at mayoral and state level, but they will be locked out from real power at the federal level and hamstrung by courts. No opposition, Democrat or some other party, will ever be able to seriously challenge the Republicans for power.

The best-case scenario is hardly any better: the backlash in 2028 election is so massive no amount of cheating is able to hide it and the Democrats manage to cling power back. However they now face the GOP deep state that will hamstring every single change or improvement and work to make the country ungovernable. The country will lurch from crisis to crisis, intermittently experiencing periods of crisis (when Democrats are in power) and active dismantling of beneficial institutions (when Republicans are). This setup is not stable however and it almost certainly ends up as either the baseline or the worst-case scenario below. It’s only marginally possible for sanity to return to right-wing politicis, and only if the GOP splits first.

The worst-case scenario is the backlash does give Democrats a clean win, but a combination of cheating, electioneering and lawfare enables the Republicans to cling on to power. Chaos ensues and rips the country apart again.

But hey, expensive eggs right? And Haitians eating cats and dogs, that had to be stopped.

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