Nigeria: Nigeria’s oil output is rising, but 1.66 million barrels a day is not a victory
Nigeria’s crude oil production has edged back up to around 1.66 million barrels per day, and while the increase is welcome, it is not a cause for celebration.
After years of decline driven by oil theft, pipeline sabotage, the exit of foreign operators, and policy uncertainty, the rebound only means the government is finally doing what it should never have stopped doing.
The gains reflect tighter security around facilities, improved pipeline monitoring, and the slow implementation of parts of the Petroleum Industry Act. These are necessary, but they are catch-up measures.
Between 2005 and 2010, Nigeria regularly produced about 2.2 million barrels per day and occasionally exceeded that. The country holds Africa’s largest oil reserves and has been in the business for decades.
At 1.66 million barrels, production still falls short of our OPEC quota and sits nearly 600,000 barrels below that earlier peak. That gap is a reminder of how much has been lost and how much work remains.
The biggest obstacle remains organized crude theft. What started as small-scale siphoning has grown into an industrial operation involving foreign networks, compromised security personnel, and influential local actors.
Surveillance and military deployment alone won’t fix it. What’s missing is prosecution of the people running the operation, not just those caught at the point of theft. Nigeria cannot credibly talk about reform while the architects of large-scale theft avoid consequences.
Investor confidence also remains weak. Uncertainty around joint venture funding, volatile foreign exchange policy, and slow contract approvals continue to push capital elsewhere. Investors follow predictable rules and reliable execution, not press releases. Until the operating environment reflects that, money will keep flowing to more stable markets.
Infrastructure is another weak link. Aging pipelines, underperforming export terminals, and a near-absent domestic refining sector leave Nigeria exposed. Rising production numbers don’t hide the embarrassment of an oil-producing nation that still spends heavily on fuel imports.
Stronger links between upstream production and local refiners would cut that dependence and keep more value at home.
Getting back to 2.2 million barrels per day would lift government revenue, support the naira, attract investment, and create jobs across the sector. More importantly, it would show that Nigeria has regained control over its most important economic asset.
The Tinubu administration deserves credit for halting the decline, but stopping the fall is not enough. The goal should be full recovery of lost ground.
As President and Oil Minister, Tinubu has the authority to make that happen. Returning Nigeria to the top of Africa’s oil producers should be treated as a non-negotiable task.
